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DEMOCRATS ABROAD
The 2004 Campaign
By
John Raines
Mobilization
Some
pundits think the 2004 election cycle will be determined by parties
drawing out base support, others believe this election will come down to
attracting swinging voters in swing states, or “swing swings”. As a
scholar of these affairs, I categorically proclaim it will be a little
bit of both.
What
is different about this year’s contest, outside its early ferocity, is
the marked divergence of Democrat and Republican perceptions of the
President. So far, polls are showing many fewer undecided voters than in
previous contests.
Democrats
are more united and inspired than they have been since 1974 (the first
election post-Watergate). Fueled by beliefs that they were robbed in
2000, along with perceptions that the administration’s
“Compassionate Conservative” policies are anything but, Democrats
are raising money and organizing their troops at an unheralded pace. The
liberal party faithful appear strangely similar to the “Angry White
Males” that turned the 1994 election into a Republican rout. Voter
anger should impact less in 2004, as larger Presidential election
turnout will offset the effect of the resentment. Even so, Republicans
should worry, as a net gain of two to three percentage points could make
the difference in a close race. Their increased irritation could also
enable Democrats to pick up several close House or Senate seats.
Republicans
also continue to mobilize. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has
pledged to register over three million new Republican voters before
their convention. Currently, they are on a registration swing through
college campuses using a robot called “Reggie the Registration Rig”
in an effort to sign up over one million political neophytes. President
Bush has raised over $US 180 million and should continue to enjoy a
tremendous financial advantage over his rival until late summer when
Federal funds get dispersed. Finally, conservative Christians might play
a bigger role in the race than political pundits currently think. They
are turning out in record numbers to see Mel Gibson’s “The
Passion”, and might be a catalyst for a second Bush term. Though they
have been less than enthusiastic about the Bush presidency so far, they
might be encouraged to get out the vote if the alternative is the
inauguration of a staunchly pro-choice liberal Democrat.
Battleground States
As
has been reported, this race comes down only to the states where either
candidate has a legitimate chance of winning. Therefore, if you are a
Republican voting in Massachusetts or a Democrat casting a ballot in
Utah, you will have about as much impact on this Presidential race as
your favorite pet does in getting you that big promotion at work; not
much at all. Certainly, an increased popular vote makes any political
candidate feel warm and fuzzy, like petting your sweet little furry
angel, but it’s unlikely to impact the final outcome.
In
this race only forty percent of the states are up for grabs, the others
have already been locked up before a single vote has been cast. Kerry
will pick up New England, much of the Mid-Atlantic, and the Pacific
coast. Bush can count on the Deep South, the Mountain West, and the
Great Plains. Still up for grabs are the Mid-West, portions of the
Southwest and Mid-Atlantic, Florida, and possibly the Mid-South
depending who is Kerry’s Vice Presidential pick.
In
fact, since most of the voters have already made of their minds
considering the contest, many believe the real race will be between the
swing voters in the swing states, what the Washington Post and the Pew
Research Center call the “Swing Swings”, or roughly 10% of the
population. If you are one of those, then the decision of the Presidency
rests largely on your shoulders.
To
rub those shoulders expect both candidates’ campaigns to advertise
aggressively in their localities and visit them often. So, if your
parents live in Ohio or Pennsylvania, expect either or both of the
candidates to personally knock on their door and give them lemonade.
Also, be sure to tell them to get me an autographed poster or baseball
cap, anything with the candidate’s name and photo. Those things will
go for a fortune on e-bay come December.
Vice
Presidential Politics
Choosing
a VP is like picking your spouse. You start out looking for Mr. Right,
but settle for Mr. Right now.
The
way I figure, there are four way of picking your VP. Practically
everyone except your brother fits into one or more of these categories.
(Apologies to your brother, but he really doesn’t fit here.)
1)
Region- Pick someone who can pick up a region or a state that you would
not normally win. Dukakis tried this with the Boston-Austin connection.
It never connected. Kerry appears to want a Southerner. If that’s the
case go with Edwards (NC), Graham (FL), Nelson (FL), or Warner (VA).
2)
Balance- Pick someone who makes up for your foibles. It is thought that
when Dick Cheney headed up George Bush’s VP selection committee, he
picked himself because it countered criticisms that the Governor was
soft on national security issues. Republicans will likely try to paint
Kerry as liberal as Walter Mondale and as boring as Al Gore. If that’s
the case then Kerry could pick someone with some crossover conservative
firepower like Sen. John McCain, or someone different, like former
Vietnam POW Sen. John McCain.
3)
Strength- Pick a running mate who enhances your star-studded qualities.
Bill Clinton chose Al Gore, a youthful southern moderate with incredible
charm and personal pizzazz. Ok, pizzazz and charm are a stretch, but
remember in 1992 Gore was a fresh face and one of the more popular
southern Senators. Kerry might pick someone who highlights his war
record, perhaps former NATO Gen. Wesley Clark, former Sen. Bob Kerrey,
or that fightin’ go get’em heck of a war hero Arizona Sen. John
McCain.
4)
Attention- Pick a candidate based on building momentum for your
floundering campaign, to draw media attention away from your competitor
and on to your unique decision to place a ______ on the ticket. Both
Gore and Mondale are credited with this approach. Although Lieberman
brought much more to the table than his religion, initially, news
coverage focused more on what he would during Friday night Sabbath than
his condemnation of Clinton during the Lewinski affair. Mondale’s
decision of Ferraro speaks volumes how this method is not failsafe
(Reagan-49 states, Mondale-Minnesota). But heck, at least he won his
home state.
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